Things have been quiet here over the last month. Other activities interfered, what else can I say. But now that it is January 2, time to get back blogging. First of all, it is the year of the dog so this picture looked appropriate:
And to start the year, an opening lead problem. 
You hold this hand with the somewhat bizarre auction. Yes, this board was played in 2017! On December 31 to be precise. Opponents are playing standard 5 card majors, 2♦ showed a game force, 3♥ presumably 5-5 and the rest was everybody’s best guess. Your lead please.
The hand is from the last session that I watched on BBO last year, the US trials for the upcoming junior world championship (August 8-18, 2018, in China). While there were lots of exciting boards, I was not terribly impressed with the level of play. It looked all too wild and gambling to me. Which is a good thing in some sense, as it will improve the chances of the Dutch teams in this event.
What is in store for me bridgewise? Well, some directing, hopefully the championship in the local team league (we’re first, 9 VP’s ahead, halfway through the event), 2nd division pairs in April with M, and a few other things that will become clear in the next months.
The lead problem: Kit Woolsey said on BBO that he plays this double as “I have an ace, partner please find it”.
The auction shows a typical problem in standard US style 2/1, where nobody can jump to show extra values and extra tricks, and no conventional bids to limit the hand are available. By the time, 3NT is reached, one has to start guessing. Presumably, south has a running ♦-suit, that rules out a diamond lead. You certainly don’t want to pick up the suit if declarer has something like ♦xx in dummy opposite ♦AKQ10xx. North has something like 5-5 with good suits. If declarer needs 5 spade tricks (with something like ♠AKQxx opposite ♠Jx), your long spades will prevent that, without the need of a spade lead. That leaves the round suits. Most of the heart honnors will be in north and it is hard to imagine south bidding 7 without the ♣A. So, I would lead a heart…
… and write -1790, just like the poor player at the table who found a spade lead.
Happy new year everybody!